One Explanation for the Hafner Perception

Some of the best baseball arguments often center around an individuals performance relative to previous seasons. For instance, a fan may simply look at a batting average and suggest a player has either vastly improved or is playing much worse while another fan may say the players batting average is just a reflection of increased or decreased BABIP (see Casey Kotchman in Tampa Bay and Austin Jackson in Detroit).

Tony Lastoria of IndiansProspectInsider.com & SportstimeOhio.com tackled this perception question about Indians DH Travis Hafner in an article titled Is Hafner Really That Different This Year?  In his article Lastoria tackles the perception of many fans that Travis Hafner, is back to being a productive and feared hitter in the lineup. Many fans also believe that Hafner was not very good the previous two seasons and looked as if his career was fading.

Lastoria concludes that based on Hafner's statistical body of work (shown below and excluding 2008 injury shortened season) that Hafner is really not much different at all this season and that he has leveled out and become a consistent above average hitter. Lastoria feels that Hafner is still one of the best designated hitter options around and that the Indians need Hafner's veteran, power bat in the lineup.

So, why is there, as Lastoria points out, a perception that Hafner is a productive a feared hitter in the lineup? One explanation may be that Hafner is performing very well in 2011 with Runners in Scoring Position (RISP). 

Choo Getting Close to Returning & Playoffs

Good news may be right around the corner for the Cleveland Indians as Shin Soo-Choo is beginning his rehab assignment with Low-A Lake County on Monday night. According to Tony Lastoria at Indiansprospectinsider.com Choo will play rightfield but it is not known if he will play the whole game:

Tony Lastoria: If he does not have any setbacks and shows he is ready, there is a decent chance he could be activated this weekend, though the target date still looks to be August 16th when the Indians start a series in Chicago against the White Sox.

Hopefully, Choo will make amends to the community for a poor choice made earlier this year and return to his 2009-2010 form and lead the Indians to the playoffs for the first time since 2007. Prior to the season Choo had some very interesting comments surrounding the 2011 Indians, comments that were mocked by many.  He had this to say to Cleveland Indians Beat Writer Paul Hoynes:


"Playoffs," said Choo. "That's it. Nothing else. . . .That's my goal." "Oh, yeah," said Choo. "We have a good offense, good pitching, too. Most people say we'll be in last place this season. But in baseball you never know. No one thought San Francisco would win the World Series last year."

Jason Kipnis & Remembering the 2007 Change at Second Base

The 2011 Indians will look to Jason Kipnis to provide the same spark as Asdrubal Cabrera provided in 2007. 

The 2007 Indians offense needed a boost and second baseman Josh Barfield had posted a disappointing slash line of .244/.273/.318 (.590 OPS) covering 414 plate appearances.  The Indians made the change on August 8th, 2007 by replacing starting second baseman Josh Barfield with a 21 year old infield prospect named Asdrubal Cabrera.  A bold move for the Indians franchise as Cabrera had played most of the season in AA Akron where he posted a .310/.383/.454 slash line in 425 games before being promoted to AAA Buffalo where he appeared in only 9 games (40 PA) prior to his callup.

After the callup, Asdrubal Cabrera finished 2007 with a slash line of .283/.354/.421 (.755 OPS) covering 186 PA.  More importantly, the Indians went 31-14 in games that Cabrera appeared (28-12 in starts) and the Indians held off Detroit and went on to win the AL Central crown.

In 2011 the Indians find themselves in need of an offensive spark and  once again have a need at second base where veteran Orlando Cabrera has posted a slash line of .244/.275/.323 (OPS of .598) covering 335 PA. The Indians will look to 24 year old second base prospect Jason Kipnis to provide the boost that Asdrubal Cabrera provided in 2007. Through 91 games (398 PA) in AAA Columbus, Kipnis posted a slash line of .279/.361/.481 with 12 HR and 55 RBI.

Can Kipnis match Asdrubal's production and value from 07. Asdrubal Cabrera played nearly every game as he was a switch hitter and Kipnis playing time, according to manager Manny Acta, will be determined on a game by game basis dependent on matchup. For additional information on the path that Jason Kipnis took from University of Kentucky to the majors, check out the Jason Kipnis Future Star or Superstar article.

The Indians and Carlos Pena

When NFL draft day is lurking, the smart advice is to ignore what clubs are saying and pay attention to what they aren't saying.  Using this strategy with the Indians relative to the 2011 trade deadline means that a right handed hitting outfielder and a starting pitcher may not be the target but a first baseman and back end reliever may be.

Carlos Pena - Cleveland Indians?

To some, this may not make a lot of sense as the Indians have Matt LaPorta and Carlos Santana at first base and a bevy of relievers (Chen Lee, Zach Putnam, Nick Hagadone, and Josh Judy available in AAA Columbus) but there is one player out there that may be available and would provide the Cleveland Indians much benefit at a low cost and that player is Carlos Pena.

Carlos Pena would provide the Cleveland Indians with a middle of the order power bat, leadership in the clubhouse, and gold glove caliber defense at first base.  Each one of these skills is desperately needed on a young Indians club entering a pennant race in the AL Central.

Choo & Santana Off to Slow Starts

Entering Saturdays game in Minnesota against the Twins, the Indians are in first place in the AL Central with with a 13-6 record.  They rank first in the American League in runs scored with 99, first in batting average at .269, first in on-base percentage at .341, and fourth in slugging percentage at .418.  They've managed to  accomplish this with  #3 hitter Shin-Soo Choo and  #4 hitter Carlos Santana struggling to find themselves at the plate.  

Carlos Santana is in his first full season in the majors and has hit in the cleanup spot in every game he's played.  Unfortunately for the Indians, he has not responded favorably posting a slash line of .215/.325/.338 with 2 HR, 10 RBI, and has struck out 13 times while drawing 11 walks.  Manager Manny Acta has said that fans should get used to seeing Santana in the cleanup spot because he is going to be there all year. Good news for the Tribe and Santana is that it appears that he may be coming out of his slump.  He is currently on a five game hitting streak and he has driven in a run in each game.  Additionally, 3 of his 5 hits have gone for extra bases.

Like Carlos Santana, Shin-Soo Choo is off to a slow start.  Choo is currently posting a slash line of .203/.265/.311 with 2HR, 10RBI, and has struck out 21 times while drawing only 7 walks.  Is this something to be alarmed by?  Has Choo had a history of starting slow?  For whatever reason, Shin-Soo Choo is off to an uncharacteristically slow start.  Although the Indians are finding early success, they will need Santana and Choo to contribute in the middle of the order to keep the good times rolling.  

  

The Indians Lineup vs Lefites

Manny Acta will have decisions to make each time the Indians face a left handed starting pitcher.  Acta has 4 everyday starters who are left handed in Grady Sizemore, Shin-Soo Choo, Travis Hafner, and Michael Brantley.  Below are the Indians splits versus left handed pitching for each player on the roster:

Today the Indians take on Brian Duensing of the Minnesota Twins.  In his career he has held left handed batters to a .195/.250/.248 and right handers have hit him at a .278/.338/.416.  The Indians have right handed bats in Adam Everett, Austin Kearns, Shelly Duncan, and Lou Marson on the bench today.  Did Acta make the right call with his lineup or is he simply working off of "gut instinct" and going with the hot hand?  Below are Duensing career numbers vs the Indians: