Outside The Box: Franky G back to Cleveland?

When it comes to internet rumors during the Hot Stove league it is best to take each one with a grain of salt. With full disclosure I am writing this trade proposal as a winter conversation starter and not something that I think is probable but rather something that is a little outside the box thinking.

The Cleveland Indians send Travis Hafner and 2.75 million cash (or prospects) to the Seattle Mariners for center fielder Franklin Gutierrez. 

According to Cot's: 

Travis Hafner is due 13 million in 2012 and a 2.75 million dollar buyout in 2013 (or an additional year at 13 million). Hafner does have a limited no trade clause to specific teams. For our purposes let's assume 15.75 million due to Hafner.

Franklin Gutierrez is due 5.5 million in 2012, 7 million in 2013, and a 500K buyout in 2014 (or an additional year at 7.5 million). Gutierrez salary increases to 7.25 with 600 PAs in 2012. For our purposes let's assume 13 million for Gutierrez.

Player Evaluations

We'll look at each player through a 3 year window which is standard for player evaluation and we'll keep it to the basic statistics of average/on-base/slugging OPS, home runs, and stolen bases for Gutierrez.

Franklin Gutierrez has seen a decline in his numbers over each of the past 3 seasons. 

Played 153 games in 2009 and posted a slash line of .283/.339/.425 an OPS of .764 with 18 HR & 16 SB. 

Played 152 games in 2010 and posted a slash line of .245/.303/.363 an OPS of .666 with 12 HR.& 25 SB.

Played  92  games in 2011 and posted a slash line of .224/.261/.273 an PS of .534 with 1 HR.& 13 SB.

Travis Hafner has seen a flattening out of his numbers over the past 3 seasons.

Played   94 games in 2009 and posted a slash line of .272/.355/.470 an OPS of .826 with 16 HR.

Played 118 games in 2010 and posted a slash line of .278/.374/.449 an OPS of .824 with 13 HR.

Played   94 games in 2011 and posted a slash line of .280/.361/.449 an OPS of .811 with 13 HR.

One Explanation for the Hafner Perception

Some of the best baseball arguments often center around an individuals performance relative to previous seasons. For instance, a fan may simply look at a batting average and suggest a player has either vastly improved or is playing much worse while another fan may say the players batting average is just a reflection of increased or decreased BABIP (see Casey Kotchman in Tampa Bay and Austin Jackson in Detroit).

Tony Lastoria of IndiansProspectInsider.com & SportstimeOhio.com tackled this perception question about Indians DH Travis Hafner in an article titled Is Hafner Really That Different This Year?  In his article Lastoria tackles the perception of many fans that Travis Hafner, is back to being a productive and feared hitter in the lineup. Many fans also believe that Hafner was not very good the previous two seasons and looked as if his career was fading.

Lastoria concludes that based on Hafner's statistical body of work (shown below and excluding 2008 injury shortened season) that Hafner is really not much different at all this season and that he has leveled out and become a consistent above average hitter. Lastoria feels that Hafner is still one of the best designated hitter options around and that the Indians need Hafner's veteran, power bat in the lineup.

So, why is there, as Lastoria points out, a perception that Hafner is a productive a feared hitter in the lineup? One explanation may be that Hafner is performing very well in 2011 with Runners in Scoring Position (RISP).