The Cleveland Indians and Walks

The 2010 Cleveland Indians were not an offensive machine, as we could point to any number of statistics and find a ranking somewhere in the bottom third of the American League.  Ryan over at Lets Go Tribe summarized the Tribes inept offensive numbers here.

To summarize the write up by Ryan at Lets Go Tribe, the Tribe ranked 10th or lower of 14 AL teams in Runs Scored, Hits, Triples, Home Runs, Batting Average, On-Base %, Slugging %, and total bases, not to mention the Tribe struck out the third most times in the American League.  To compound all of the negative offensive data, the Tribe was shut out a total of 15 times in 2010.  The one thing the Tribe was able to do in 2010 was walk as the team ranked sixth in the AL with 545 walks.

How do the Indians draw so many walks and still lose 93 games?  To answer this question, I've taken the Indians record in games where they drew 0-7+ walks and compared the frequency of these events to the AL average and their corresponding win percentage in these games to the AL League Average.  The table indicates that the Indians overall had less games than league average drawing 1,2, or 3 walks and a greater than league average in frequency of drawing 0, 4, 5, 6, or 7 or more walks in a game.   The Indians win percentage exceeded the league average only for games where the team drew 6 walks.

INDIANS RECORD IN GAMES BY WALK TOTAL
BB	W	L	Win %	Freq	AL Win %	AL Freq	±AL Win%	±AL Freq
0	2	10	0.167	7.41%	0.301	6.00%	-0.135	1.41%
1	7	15	0.318	13.58%	0.403	14.99%	-0.085	-1.41%
2	11	14	0.440	15.43%	0.445	19.93%	-0.005	-4.50%
3	12	19	0.387	19.14%	0.493	19.22%	-0.106	-0.09%
4	10	17	0.370	16.67%	0.548	15.21%	-0.177	1.46%
5	8	10	0.444	11.11%	0.633	11.07%	-0.189	0.04%
6	10	2	0.833	7.41%	0.627	5.91%	0.206	1.50%
≥7	9	6	0.600	9.26%	0.667	7.67%	-0.067	1.59%

Did the Indians improve their overall W-L percentage when they drew 4 or more walks as opposed to 3 wallks or less?  From the table belwo, the Indians had a .356 winning percentage when drawing less than 3 walks but a .514 win percentage when drawing 4 or more walks. 

DRAWING 3 WALKS OR LESS IN A GAME
AL Rank	Team	W	L	Win %	Freq%	AL Win %	AL Freq%	±AL Win%	±AL Freq
1	Rays	41	29	0.586	43.21%	0.435	60.14%	0.151	-16.93%
2	White Sox	62	51	0.549	69.75%	0.435	60.14%	0.114	9.61%
3	Yankees	39	33	0.542	44.44%	0.435	60.14%	0.107	-15.70%
4	Red Sox	44	45	0.494	54.94%	0.435	60.14%	0.059	-5.20%
5	Blue Jays	49	56	0.467	64.81%	0.435	60.14%	0.032	4.67%
6	Rangers	44	54	0.449	60.49%	0.435	60.14%	0.014	0.35%
7	Angels	49	67	0.422	71.60%	0.435	60.14%	-0.013	11.46%
8	Twins	37	52	0.416	54.94%	0.435	60.14%	-0.019	-5.20%
9	Athletics	39	57	0.406	59.26%	0.435	60.14%	-0.029	-0.88%
10	Orioles	45	75	0.375	74.07%	0.435	60.14%	-0.060	13.93%
11	Mariners	40	67	0.374	66.05%	0.435	60.14%	-0.061	5.91%
12	Royals	39	67	0.368	65.43%	0.435	60.14%	-0.067	5.29%
13	Tigers	34	59	0.366	57.41%	0.435	60.14%	-0.069	-2.73%
14	Indians	32	58	0.356	55.56%	0.435	60.14%	-0.079	-4.58%

DRAWING 4 WALKS OR MORE IN A GAME
AL Rank	Team	W	L	Win %	Freq%	AL Win %	AL Freq%	±AL Win%	±AL Freq
1	Twins	57	16	0.781	45.06%	0.606	39.86%	0.175	5.20%
2	Tigers	47	22	0.681	42.59%	0.606	39.86%	0.075	2.73%
3	Angels	31	15	0.674	28.40%	0.606	39.86%	0.068	-11.46%
4	Athletics	42	24	0.636	40.74%	0.606	39.86%	0.030	0.88%
5	Rangers	42	24	0.636	39.51%	0.606	39.86%	0.030	-0.35%
6	Blue Jays	36	21	0.632	35.19%	0.606	39.86%	0.025	-4.67%
7	Yankees	56	34	0.622	55.56%	0.606	39.86%	0.016	15.70%
8	Red Sox	45	28	0.616	45.06%	0.606	39.86%	0.010	5.20%
9	Rays	55	37	0.598	56.79%	0.606	39.86%	-0.008	16.93%
10	White Sox	26	23	0.531	30.25%	0.606	39.86%	-0.076	-9.61%
11	Indians	37	35	0.514	44.44%	0.606	39.86%	-0.092	4.58%
12	Royals	28	28	0.500	34.57%	0.606	39.86%	-0.106	-5.29%
13	Orioles	21	21	0.500	25.93%	0.606	39.86%	-0.106	-13.93%
14	Mariners	21	34	0.382	33.95%	0.606	39.86%	-0.224	-5.91%

Having a healthy Grady Sizemore and Carlos Santana back in the lineup should increase the Indians walk total in 2011 and help increase the frequency of games where the Indians draw 4 or more walks in a game.   If the trend of winning percentage increasing when drawing 4 or more walks a game continues, the Tribe should be able to increase its win total from 2010 to 2011.