Showing posts with label Base on Balls. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Base on Balls. Show all posts

Sunday, October 17, 2010

The Cleveland Indians and Walks

The 2010 Cleveland Indians were not an offensive machine, as we could point to any number of statistics and find a ranking somewhere in the bottom third of the American League.  Ryan over at Lets Go Tribe summarized the Tribes inept offensive numbers here.

To summarize the write up by Ryan at Lets Go Tribe, the Tribe ranked 10th or lower of 14 AL teams in Runs Scored, Hits, Triples, Home Runs, Batting Average, On-Base %, Slugging %, and total bases, not to mention the Tribe struck out the third most times in the American League.  To compound all of the negative offensive data, the Tribe was shut out a total of 15 times in 2010.  The one thing the Tribe was able to do in 2010 was walk as the team ranked sixth in the AL with 545 walks.

How do the Indians draw so many walks and still lose 93 games?  To answer this question, I've taken the Indians record in games where they drew 0-7+ walks and compared the frequency of these events to the AL average and their corresponding win percentage in these games to the AL League Average.  The table indicates that the Indians overall had less games than league average drawing 1,2, or 3 walks and a greater than league average in frequency of drawing 0, 4, 5, 6, or 7 or more walks in a game.   The Indians win percentage exceeded the league average only for games where the team drew 6 walks.


INDIANS RECORD IN GAMES BY WALK TOTAL
BBWLWin %FreqAL Win %AL Freq±AL Win%±AL Freq
02100.1677.41%0.3016.00%-0.1351.41%
17150.31813.58%0.40314.99%-0.085-1.41%
211140.44015.43%0.44519.93%-0.005-4.50%
312190.38719.14%0.49319.22%-0.106-0.09%
410170.37016.67%0.54815.21%-0.1771.46%
58100.44411.11%0.63311.07%-0.1890.04%
61020.8337.41%0.6275.91%0.2061.50%
7960.6009.26%0.6677.67%-0.0671.59%



Did the Indians improve their overall W-L percentage when they drew 4 or more walks as opposed to 3 wallks or less?  From the table belwo, the Indians had a .356 winning percentage when drawing less than 3 walks but a .514 win percentage when drawing 4 or more walks. 


DRAWING 3 WALKS OR LESS IN A GAME
AL RankTeamWL Win %Freq%AL Win %AL Freq%±AL Win%±AL Freq
1Rays41290.58643.21%0.43560.14%0.151-16.93%
2White Sox62510.54969.75%0.43560.14%0.1149.61%
3Yankees39330.54244.44%0.43560.14%0.107-15.70%
4Red Sox44450.49454.94%0.43560.14%0.059-5.20%
5Blue Jays49560.46764.81%0.43560.14%0.0324.67%
6Rangers44540.44960.49%0.43560.14%0.0140.35%
7Angels49670.42271.60%0.43560.14%-0.01311.46%
8Twins37520.41654.94%0.43560.14%-0.019-5.20%
9Athletics39570.40659.26%0.43560.14%-0.029-0.88%
10Orioles45750.37574.07%0.43560.14%-0.06013.93%
11Mariners40670.37466.05%0.43560.14%-0.0615.91%
12Royals39670.36865.43%0.43560.14%-0.0675.29%
13Tigers34590.36657.41%0.43560.14%-0.069-2.73%
14Indians32580.35655.56%0.43560.14%-0.079-4.58%



DRAWING 4 WALKS OR MORE IN A GAME
AL RankTeamWL Win %Freq%AL Win %AL Freq%±AL Win%±AL Freq
1Twins57160.78145.06%0.60639.86%0.1755.20%
2Tigers47220.68142.59%0.60639.86%0.0752.73%
3Angels31150.67428.40%0.60639.86%0.068-11.46%
4Athletics42240.63640.74%0.60639.86%0.0300.88%
5Rangers42240.63639.51%0.60639.86%0.030-0.35%
6Blue Jays36210.63235.19%0.60639.86%0.025-4.67%
7Yankees56340.62255.56%0.60639.86%0.01615.70%
8Red Sox45280.61645.06%0.60639.86%0.0105.20%
9Rays55370.59856.79%0.60639.86%-0.00816.93%
10White Sox26230.53130.25%0.60639.86%-0.076-9.61%
11Indians37350.51444.44%0.60639.86%-0.0924.58%
12Royals28280.50034.57%0.60639.86%-0.106-5.29%
13Orioles21210.50025.93%0.60639.86%-0.106-13.93%
14Mariners21340.38233.95%0.60639.86%-0.224-5.91%


Having a healthy Grady Sizemore and Carlos Santana back in the lineup should increase the Indians walk total in 2011 and help increase the frequency of games where the Indians draw 4 or more walks in a game.   If the trend of winning percentage increasing when drawing 4 or more walks a game continues, the Tribe should be able to increase its win total from 2010 to 2011.