The Coaching Staff Ready for Cactus League Opener?

Woody Allen may of been describing the emotions that Tribe fans have been going through since 1948.

"To love is to suffer. To avoid suffering, one must not love, But then, one suffers from not loving. Therefore, to love is to suffer; not to love is to suffer, to suffer is to suffer.  To be happy is to love, To be happy, than, is to suffer, but suffering makes one unhappy. Therefore, to be happy, one must love or love to suffer or suffer from too much happiness." - Woody Allen

The Logic Behind the Chad Durbin Signing

The Indians, according to reports, have signed long reliever Chad Durbin to a 1-year $800,000 major league contract which includes nearly 1 million in incentives.  According to Ken Rosenthal, Durbin is expected to take his physical on Monday.

Chad Durbin will join an Indians bullpen which includes Chris Perez, Rafael Perez, Tony Sipp, Joe Smith, and Jensen Lewis.  Durbin will assume the role as a low leverage reliever and with his abiliyt to work multiple innings will be the long rel.iever.  He has been reliable and durable over the past three seasons in Philadelphia, logging 87.2 innings in 2008, 69.2 innings in 2009, and 68.2 innings in 2010.  Looking at what is referred to as the Leverage Index (LI) for relief pitchers, with 1.0 being considered average, Durbin was a 1.3 in 2008 and a 0.8 in 2009 and 2010. 

As for the roster move, it is my guess that the Indians remove Frank Herrmann from the 40 man roster to make room for Durbin.  I do not forsee anyone claiming Herrmann and adding him to their 40 man, nor do I see the Indians having a gaping hole in that role (Reyes, Laffey, Tomlin, Gomez, Martinez, Mathis). 

Overall, the Indians bullpen is deeper and more experienced with Durbin than with Frank Herrmann or any of the other pitchers mentioned.   The last relief spot may go to someone who can challenge Jensen Lewis, who will be on the shortest leash in camp and early in the 2011 season, as the right handed back end reliever.   Jess Todd, Vinny Pestano, and Josh Judy are probably the most likely candidates as of today.  Or the Indians could add Aaron Laffey to the back end of the bullpen and test Durbin in some more higher leverage situatins as the Phillies did in 2008 while Judy, Pestano, and Todd get consistent work in Columbus to start the season.

Detroit Tigers Poised to Win the Central

The 2011 Tigers are built to score runs.  Led at the top of the order by dynamic CF Austion Jackson and a middle of the order that includes Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, Magglio Ordonez, Ryan Raburn, and Johnny Peralta.  The starting rotation has a true Ace and a vey promising one-two punch with Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer.  On paper, the Tigers rotation is the Achilles heel for the Tigers.  Rick Porcello, Phil Coke, and Brad Penny provide as many questions as answers.  The Tigers are prepared for some short outings by their starters and have assembled a very high octane bullpen that includes Jose Valverde, Joaquin Benoit, Ryan Perry, and a hopefully healthy Joel Zumaya.  If the Tigers can avoid the injury bug and overcome the defensive liabilities at several positions on the field they should be in position to win their first AL Central Title.

Some of the questions I have about the Tigers are:

• Will Magglio Ordonez show any ill effects from his 2010 ankle injury.  Will he put up another +.800 OPS season.
• Which Brennan Boesch is the real one?  The first half or the second half?  Will he break camp with the big league club?
• Will Rick Porcello be able to pitch to contact successfully or will the defensive lapses behind him affect him more than others.
• Will Phil Coke be able to effortlessly transition from reliever to starter and provide sufficient innings?
• Will Brad Penny be able to stay healthy and like Porcello, pitch to contact successfully.
• Will Miguel Cabrera be able to stay on the straight and narrow for the duration of the 2011 season (it seems to me that being around basebll family may be great support).
• Will Carlos Guillen return from microfracture surgery and be able to play 2b?
• Will Will Rhymes/Scott Sizemore be able to provide enough offense and defense at 2b until Guillen is ready to return?
• Will we see Andy Oliver or Jacob Turner in the rotation in 2011?
• WIll we see Alex Ortega or Chance Ruffin skyrocket through the system and appear in the Tigers bullpen in 2011?

Lou Marson: Backup Catcher

Should Lou Marson return to AAA to get consistent playing time while Paul Phillips or Luke Carlin head North with the Indians to fill the backup catcher role?

Other than the 40-man roster move that would have to be made to get Phillips or Carlin on the roster, neither Phillips or Carlin appear to have the skill set that provide any sort of depth on the major league roster. 

Marson showed the ability to hit at AA Reading in 2008.  He hit .314/.433/.416 in 395 PA (see peripherals below as to why I don't feel he could replicate those numbers).  He has been unable to carry that 2008 production to AAA or the major leagues.   I doubt the Indians feel that Marson will  evolve into an offensive force in AAA and allow them to move Carlos Santana to 1b.  I do believe the Indians see Marson strictly as a backup catcher, a guy to provide a day off for Carlos Santana, will help control the running game, and will provide offense against left handed pitching.

Just some peripheral stats: 

In 2010, Marson had an unbelievably low BABIP of .221  in the majors and .231 in the minors. 

In 2010, Marson had a GB% of 56.9 (league average is 43.2%) in the majors and a GB% of 46.5% in AAA.

Even in Marson's best 2008 AA season he had a GB% of 59.1 but a BABIP of .386.

Let's first take a look at the obvious backup catching options that are in camp.  Keep in mind that Marson, Phillips, and Carlin major league statistics are all based on limited sample sizes.  Since Minorleaguesplits.com is not available, I am unalbe to give the minor league vs left handed pitching splits.  Finally, arguing the merits of the defenisve prowress of a catcher is a tricky proposition, so I tried to keep the defensive statistics fairly vanilla.

Manny Acta's Three Big Lies of Spring Training

Manny Acta is doing his best Matt Foley trying to motivate the Indians in Goodyear Arizona.



The three big lies being fed to the media early in Spring Training 2011 are as follows:

1. Orlando Cabrera is the starting second baseman. If Orlando Cabrera is the opening day second baseman then several players had very disappointing springs. The point of this lie is to light a fire under Luis Valbuena, Jayson Nix, Jason Donald, and Cord Phelps. Manny Acta wants one of these guys to win the job. I would buy in to this lie a little more if in fact Orlando Cabrera's contract did have incentive language in it based on starts or innings played etc., but it does not (at least according to Cot's).


[sidebar] I belive the Indians would like to see Cord Phelps get at bats against the best pitchers in AAA rather than the diluted staffs he saw after his promotion in 2010 (same goes for Kipnis).

2. Aaron Laffey is competing for the 5th starter. Laffey being the 5th starter would be a big shock to me. Aaron Laffey has been unable to stay healthy for the last few seasons. He should to be a long reliever or low leverage reliever as I believe this could be a perfect role for him. The purpose of this lie is to light a fire under David Huff. Manny Acta doesn't want an all right handed rotation but it is the opinion of this writer that he'd rather have that then a rotation with Aaron Laffey in it.

3. Paul Phillips or Luke Carlin will start the year as the backup catcher. This is a way of telling Lou Marson to stay sharp and work hard. He isn't guaranteed a spot on the final roster. There really is no logic behind making a 40-man roster move to give Marson AAA at-bats. Marson does a good job at controlling the running game, hits lefties well, has decent speed for a catcher, and Carlos Santana has a long swing from the right side.

It will be interesting to track these developments through the Cactus League season and see if the tune changes.

Luis Valbuena: One More Shot?

photo from Cleveland.com

It was a much more than a sophomore slump, it was the total collapse of a player who had a breakout year in the minors in 2008 and a respectable rookie year with the Indians after a blistering start in AAA Columbus in 2010. Valbuena may be one of the few Indians prospects that have been rushed up to the major leagues.  To date, Valbuena still only has 460 AAA Plate Appearances and he only had 341 prior to his 2009 call up.  Valbuena has been unable to settle in to any position in the infield, although 2b appears to be his best position.  After signing Orlando Cabrera to play 2b, what plans do the Indians have for Luis Valbuena?  With Jason Kipnis/Cord Phelps on their way up at 2b,  Lonnie Chisenhall on his way to 3b, and Jason Donald available as a true utility infielder where is there room for Valbuena to play?  I can see Valbuena being the 2b/3b utility guy and when Asdrubal needs a day off pushing Orlando Cabrera to shortstop but being able to play shortstop in a pinch.