Some will point to the moves the Indians made this winter as an indictment against the Indians front office and say its more evidence that the team does not want to contend. Despite the increase in opening day payroll from 49M in 2011 to somewhere in the 63M-70M range in 2012 (depending on the Carmona [RHH] outcome) the same segment of fans will suggest that the ownership is more interested in collecting welfare from MLB than in investing in the on-field product.
These same group of fans will only see spending on brand name players as the only way to close the gap on the rest of the competition and would show the fans that they are serious about winning. Anything short of multiple brand name signings or trading prospects for higher priced brand names reverts the argument back to the opening paragraph..don't want to win, cheap owner, etc.
Whether a fan is happy with the moves the Indians made or disgruntled by them the trust factor that the front office is trying to field a competitive team that can challenge for a division title should not be a question up for debate. What the Indians front office is banking on is the following:
1. A healthy and productive return of Grady Sizemore and Shin-Soo Choo.
2 Ubaldo Jimenez straightens himself out and reverts back to the top of the rotation pitcher he was in Colorado.
3. Justin Masterson continues to develop and is closer to his first half performance than his second half performance.
4. Carlos Santana continues to develop in his second full big league season and becomes an even bigger middle of the order bat.
5. Asdrubal Cabrera has a 2012 season that matches his 2009/2011 seasons.
6. Lonnie Chisehnall advances and at some point during the season takes over as the everyday 3b and sprays line drives from gap to gap at Progressive Field.
7. Michael Brantley finally steps up, stays healthy, and has a breakout year.
8. Jason Kipnis shows that he is an above average second baseman with all-star potential.
9. The bullpen will be able to effectively work as many innings as necessary to overcome the lack of quality starting pitching.
10. Casey Kotchman provides stellar defense at 1b and saves the team numerous unearned runs and errors that force the starting pitchers to make more pitches hastening their exit (see #9).
11. Derek Lowe can survive pitching in the AL, pitch to a below league average FIP, and avoid the 2011 September collapse.
All of these things probably won't happen but the Indians front office is hoping that enough of them materialize, enough to carry the team through until the trade deadline with the team in contention. From there they can add and supplement the roster as needed.
You never know what can happen at that point - remember the Detroit Tigers were only 51-46 when they made the deal to acquire Wilson Betemit on July 20th and were only 56-51 when they made the trade for Doug Fister at the trade deadline. Believe it or not they still only held a 2-game lead with a record of 64-57 when they acquired Delmon Young on August 15th.
Fister, Betemit, and Young weren't on the February 2011 Tigers roster and the 2011 Tigers hadn't done much over the first 4 months of the season except play near .500 baseball. From there the Tigers took full advantage of a schedule that from August 5th to the end of the season saw them matched up against one team with a record over .500.
A statistical look at the Cleveland Indians balanced by logical reasoning mixed with the emotion of being a fan.
Saturday, February 11, 2012
Friday, February 10, 2012
What the Hell is PECOTA?
To those who would like a quick entertaining primer to the PECOTA projection system used by Baseball Prospectus.
A look at the Indians Projections can be found at WahoosOnFirst (HERE)
A look at the Indians Projections can be found at WahoosOnFirst (HERE)
Monday, February 6, 2012
Indians and Left Handed Starters
The 2012 Indians everyday lineup will have switch hitters Carlos Santana and Asdrubal Cabrera and the remaining lineup will be comprised of left handed hitters. This has led to a lot of deep concerns about what happens when a left handed pitcher is on the mound to start a game worse yet, what about late in games when teams go to their left handed relief pitchers. Does Jason Donald, Shelly Duncan, Aaron Cunningham, and Lou Marson provide enough flexibility off the bench to balance the scales of the late inning matchup.
Let's look at the left handed starting pitchers first. The Indians may face up to 25 different left handed pitchers during the year. Out of the 26 starting pitchers listed below several won't be in their teams respective rotations but have been included on the list (see Baltimore Orioles and Oakland A's). Additionally, the Indians face the Miami Marlins in 1 series and it isn't set in stone that the team will face Mark Buehrle likewise Erik Bedard with Pittsburgh.
Second, the concern that the Indians flexibility to handle matchups late in games. Historically, teams that have a lead after 6 innings of play win around 85% of the time. The data below was presented at a SABR conference in Cincinnati in 2004 by David W. Smith in a project titled: Coming from Behind: Patterns of Scoring and Relation to Winning Data collected includes the results of 73 seasons.
I know what you're thinking....great, but what about close games after 6 innings etc. The graph below shows a teams winning percentage with 1, 2, 3, and 4 run leads after each inning.
In 2011 the Indians had a .875 winning percentage with a record of 56-8 when leading after 6 innings, .938% when leading after 7 with a record of 61-4, and a .955% when leading after 8 with a record of 64-3.
When looking at the Tigers who won the 2011 AL Central crown. They had a winning percentage of .934 when leading after 6 with a record of 71-5, 100% when leading after 7 with a record of 77-0, and 100% when leading after 8 with a record of 83-0.
The takeaway from this isn't the winning percentage between the two teams. The takeaway should be the frequency that the Indians led after 6, 7, and 8 innings as compared to the Tigers. The Tigers had a lead 76 times after 6 innings while the Indians had only 64 games.
The best way for the Indians to deflate the oppositions left-handed matchup is to make the opposition go to their bullpen to try and keep the Indians from extending a lead rather than protecting their own.
Second, the concern that the Indians flexibility to handle matchups late in games. Historically, teams that have a lead after 6 innings of play win around 85% of the time. The data below was presented at a SABR conference in Cincinnati in 2004 by David W. Smith in a project titled: Coming from Behind: Patterns of Scoring and Relation to Winning Data collected includes the results of 73 seasons.
I know what you're thinking....great, but what about close games after 6 innings etc. The graph below shows a teams winning percentage with 1, 2, 3, and 4 run leads after each inning.
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| Team Win% When Leading After Inning |
In 2011 the Indians had a .875 winning percentage with a record of 56-8 when leading after 6 innings, .938% when leading after 7 with a record of 61-4, and a .955% when leading after 8 with a record of 64-3.
When looking at the Tigers who won the 2011 AL Central crown. They had a winning percentage of .934 when leading after 6 with a record of 71-5, 100% when leading after 7 with a record of 77-0, and 100% when leading after 8 with a record of 83-0.
The takeaway from this isn't the winning percentage between the two teams. The takeaway should be the frequency that the Indians led after 6, 7, and 8 innings as compared to the Tigers. The Tigers had a lead 76 times after 6 innings while the Indians had only 64 games.
The best way for the Indians to deflate the oppositions left-handed matchup is to make the opposition go to their bullpen to try and keep the Indians from extending a lead rather than protecting their own.
Thursday, February 2, 2012
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